![]() It is now close to being a proxy NATO/Russia war that has progressed in such a way that not one of those four oblasts is fully controlled by Russia, while substantial Ukrainian gains have been made in the north-east. Since early August the balance of force has shifted back in favour of Ukraine, aided by its leadership and the morale of its army but also helped immensely by the advanced weaponry, training and intelligence resources provided by the United States and NATO allies. Over the past seven months, the Ukraine war has ground on, with Russia initially consolidating its power in the east and even making some gains. As for Iraq, Bush declared “mission accomplished” after just six weeks of fighting early in 2003, but instead a bitter and complex conflict ensued with consequences still felt 19 years later. It took the Taliban two decades to drive the US-led forces out but in the end they succeeded. Back in late 2001, the Bush administration thought the Taliban had been routed and it promptly extended its war on terror to embrace an “axis of evil” with Iraq in lead position. ![]() While this may seem incredible from a Western perspective, it is salient to remember recent Western failures. The extent of the failure was down to a potent mix of hubris and incompetence.Ī weekly summary of our latest stories about the post-Soviet world. Even the second aim could not be achieved, with a stalemate developing after Russian forces withdrew to the eastern oblasts and Crimea. The operation went wrong in the first 48 hours, starting with the initial failure of the airborne assault on the Antonov airstrip close to Kyiv. Along with the adjacent client state of Belarus and aided by forward-based Russian nuclear forces in both states, this would be a strategic re-drawing of Central Europe and an important step in the evolution of a renewed Greater Russia and the creation of a Russia-led Eurasian superpower. The end result would have been the extension of Russian military power westwards to the borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. The second was to occupy northern Ukraine eastwards to the city of Kharkhiv and then, thirdly, to consolidate control of the four oblasts (provinces) of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, linking up with Crimea in the south.ĭirect occupation of the great majority of Ukraine would be unnecessary because, in the view of the Kremlin, there would be widespread support for the new government in Kyiv, with the country welcoming liberation from its ‘neo-Nazi’ regime. ![]() Most important was a rapid assault on and occupation of Kyiv, leading to the fall of the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and its replacement with a pro-Putin regime. When the forces of Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” invaded Ukraine on 24 February there were three aims. ![]()
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